The blockbuster Chelsea and Aston Villa swap transfer deal that could transform the Premier League.
Chelsea have £84 million to spend ahead of the Premier League season starting
Any hopes that Chelsea’s three-year spending spree under Todd Boehly may grind to a halt were already looking faint at the start of the transfer window and were then completely dashed at the Club World Cup, giving the Blues an extra windfall to chase targets including Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers.
The £84 million Chelsea earned for beating PSG in the final at Metlife Stadium wouldn’t be enough to afford Rogers outright but in a summer where they’ve already bought Liam Delap, Joao Pedro and Jamie Gittens, it would suffice if they sweeten the deal by offering a player in return.
And TBR Football believe that’s exactly Enzo Maresca’s cunning plan to capture Rogers, largely due to Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) limitations. And though defenders including Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah and Benoit Badiashile could be of interest to Aston Villa, the best option may in fact be Nicolas Jackson in a swap-plus-cash deal.
Aston Villa fans may understandably roll their eyes at the thought of bringing Jackson to the second city, after the striker scored 10 times in 30 Premier League games last season and has picked up as many red cards as goals in his last six matches. Dig into the underlying data and the move looks even worse – Jackson was one of the most under-performing forwards in the Premier League last season in front of goal.
The 24-year-old had an expected goals tally of 12.3 according to Opta per FBRef.com, so his goals minus xG tally of -2.3 (effectively a measure of how good a striker is at taking their chances) makes him the 562nd most clinical player in the league, out of 574 qualifying candidates.
In layman’s terms, his G-xG of -0.09 per game is equivalent to an average striker missing a penalty every eight games across the course of a season.
However, Jackson flourished under Emery at Villarreal after the current Aston Villa boss handed him his debut in yellow. Jackson would go on to score 12 La Liga goals that season (outperforming his xG by a whopping +0.24 per 90 minutes, making him the best finisher in the division) which inspired Chelsea to invest £32m to bring him to Stamford Bridge.
The bulk of those goals came after Emery had been hired at Villa Park but were scored on the foundation laid out by the four-time Europa League winner, and it’s clear he still holds the Senegalese star in high regard.
Ahead of meeting his former charge at Stamford Bridge last December, when Jackson would score a well-placed opener then miss an open goal as the Blues beat Emery’s side 3-0, the Spaniard told Sky Sports: “He was starting the pre-season with the U21s and when he was progressively coming to train with us, he was showing his potential. We worked during the one year on his skill, he improved his understanding better, how he could exploit his potential. And playing minutes and getting experiences was the next step.
“But his attitude as well was fantastic. He was always learning. He was always demanding to train more, to be focused. He was also being a professional every day out of training sessions at home because he was focused on football like the first priority in his life.”
Of course, some players can never rediscover their best form regardless of manager – not everyone is Kevin Nolan. However, with another European campaign coming up this season and a striker who will enter his 30s in 2025, allowing Emery the opportunity to attempt yet another transformation act on an attacking asset who’s lost his way could give Villa a new dimension in 2025/26.
Leave a Reply